Even with the potential release of AirPods Pro 3 later this year, Apple’s earbuds sales are unlikely to see continued growth. After years of rapid expansion, the global wireless earbuds market has now entered its ‘maturity’ phase, meaning many leading vendors, including Apple, will likely face stagnant sales in 2025. 
Despite speculation about the highly anticipated AirPods Pro 3 launch, the high price tag of Apple’s next premium earbuds could make it challenging for the company to increase shipments compared to 2024.
According to analysts at Counterpoint Research, Apple’s market share could drop slightly from 22 percent in 2024 to 21 percent by the end of this year, reflecting a modest 0.4 percent decline in global volumes. However, this will still keep Apple firmly in the lead, ahead of Xiaomi and Samsung
. Speaking of Xiaomi, the Chinese tech giant is projected to experience the largest year-on-year growth in true wireless stereo (TWS) sales among the top five vendors, further cementing its position in second place and expanding its lead over boAt.
boAt, an Indian brand, has seen tremendous growth in its home market thanks to its affordable models. However, as the company has captured much of its core audience, its numbers are expected to decline in the near future. This opens the door for Samsung and JBL to potentially crack the global top three. Both companies are expected to see sales increases in 2025, though Samsung’s Galaxy Buds lineup might not be performing as well as expected.
Overall, Counterpoint anticipates a modest 3 percent increase in wireless earbuds sales worldwide this year compared to the last, indicating only marginal growth. Looking ahead, Apple could potentially drive a more significant growth surge in 2027 if the standard AirPods get an upgrade and a new ANC-equipped version is released by the end of next year. While this might seem unlikely, I’ll leave that prediction to the analysts.