China on Track to Lead Global Chip Production Capacity by 2030

China is accelerating its push to become the global leader in semiconductor foundry capacity, with projections indicating it could surpass both South Korea and Taiwan by 2030.

According to a new report by the Yole Group, Chinese foundries are expanding at a rate that could see the nation take the top spot in global chip production capacity within the decade.

Currently ranked third behind Taiwan and South Korea, China’s progress is driven by a strategic mix of heavy state investment, urgent self-reliance policies triggered by U.S. export restrictions, and a relentless focus on mature process nodes that still dominate many industries.

Despite trailing in advanced process technology-China’s leading manufacturer SMIC is just reaching 6nm, still years behind TSMC and Samsung-the country is betting big on volume. With mature nodes still crucial for sectors like automotive and consumer electronics, Beijing’s chipmakers are cementing their relevance, even as the West chases cutting-edge fabrication.

China’s goal is not just to be a big player-it aims to be indispensable. ASML’s CEO recently admitted that Europe is heavily reliant on Chinese mature-node chip supply. As Western nations grapple with supply constraints, China is quietly filling the gaps, reinforcing its global positioning.

While questions about quality, security, and innovation persist, especially given past controversies over alleged backdoors and the opacity of Chinese state-led ventures, the numbers speak volumes. If trends continue, China could hold up to 30% of global foundry capacity by 2030. In a world increasingly dependent on silicon, that’s a geopolitical shift with real consequences.

Whether or not it reaches the pinnacle of process technology, China’s rise as a manufacturing powerhouse seems inevitable. And as history has shown-from solar panels to EVs-given enough time and policy support, it often goes from follower to leader.