In a recent hearing before the House Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia Subcommittee, US Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, revealed that China will likely produce no more than 200,000 advanced Huawei Ascend AI chips by 2025. This disclosure came in response to a question from Representative Bill Huizenga (R-MI), who sought clarification on whether this figure referred specifically to Huawei’s production or to China’s overall AI chip capacity. 
Kessler confirmed that the estimate applied solely to Huawei’s Ascend chip production for 2025, adding that most, if not all, of these chips would remain within China.
While 200,000 units may seem modest compared to the millions of chips that companies like NVIDIA are shipping globally-NVIDIA alone is expected to ship over two million AI chips in 2024-Kessler emphasized that China’s rapid investment in AI chip production shouldn’t be underestimated. He cautioned that the small scale of production now should not be a source of complacency. China is making significant strides in boosting its domestic AI chip manufacturing capacity, which could threaten the technological dominance of the US and its allies in the future.
The hearing also touched on the recent US-UAE deal under President Trump’s Stargate initiative, where Representative Sydney Kai Kamlager-Dove (D-CA) asked Kessler about security protocols to prevent US technology from being diverted to Chinese companies. Kessler assured that any AI chips exported to countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be subject to approval by the Bureau for Industry and Security (BIS) to ensure their security.
In a follow-up discussion, Representative Ami Bera (D-CA) asked about the specific ways China was catching up in the AI chip market, given the relatively low production figure for 2025. Kessler explained that the US strategy to contain China’s technological rise includes two main approaches: expanding the global usage of American AI chips and enforcing export controls. The US aims to cement its technological primacy by making sure its chips are used in critical AI applications worldwide while preventing adversaries like China from gaining access to advanced technology.
Despite these efforts, Kessler admitted that alignment between the US and its allies on export controls remains incomplete. While progress has been made, there are still significant gaps in ensuring that adversaries do not exploit loopholes to acquire advanced technologies. According to Kessler, the lack of global cooperation in some areas is allowing US adversaries to advance their technological capabilities.