JPMorgan has reduced its Q2 delivery estimate for Tesla, signaling a rough period for the company.
The bank now predicts Tesla will deliver around 360,000 vehicles, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 395,000 and the consensus estimate of 392,000. This 35,000-unit reduction reflects disappointing data from Europe, where Tesla’s performance continues to lag. Year-over-year registrations in Denmark and Sweden have dropped by over 60%, with some reports showing a 64% decrease in Sweden alone. As a result, Tesla’s stock fell by 5.8% in pre-market trading, continuing the downward trend seen this year. Tesla’s shares have been struggling, down 16% year-to-date, largely due to weak deliveries and political tensions surrounding CEO Elon Musk. The company’s expansion into robotaxis has also faced challenges, which only adds to the growing investor skepticism. With a range of issues, including inflation, high interest rates, and competition from both traditional automakers and new entrants, Tesla’s path forward remains uncertain. JPMorgan maintained its $15 price target for Tesla’s stock but lowered its 2025 EPS estimate to $1.75 from $2.07, and cut its 2026 EPS forecast to $2.40 from $2.85. Despite these struggles, the company remains a dominant player in the EV market, with impressive vehicle technology. However, JPMorgan’s report highlights the uphill battle Tesla faces in Europe and beyond as it strives to maintain growth amidst a difficult market landscape.