The Nintendo Switch 2 may be on track for a strong launch, but analysts warn that stock will remain limited until at least spring next year. Japanese analysts Hideki Yasuda of Toyo Securities and Zhai Yijia of UBS Securities both estimate that only around 6 million units will be available in the first month following the console’s June 6 release.
Despite the anticipated scarcity, both analysts see big potential for the system’s success. Yasuda predicts the console could sell up to 20 million units by March 2026, while Yijia projects a slightly lower 18 million units – both estimates surpassing the original Switch’s early sales by 20–30%.
However, Yijia offers a more cautious outlook.
He points out that previous consoles, including the original Switch and the PS5, launched amid semiconductor shortages that limited supply, so comparing initial sales directly isn’t necessarily a reflection of stronger demand. According to him, it will be tough for the Switch 2 to eventually exceed the total lifetime sales of the original Switch.
Yasuda, on the other hand, believes the Switch 2’s broad appeal gives it an edge. “It’s overwhelmingly popular compared to past game consoles,” he notes, adding that strong early momentum often leads to lasting success.
Further backing this optimism, DFC Intelligence projects that the Switch 2 could sell more than 100 million units by 2029, putting it in position to potentially surpass its predecessor in the long run.
Meanwhile, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa has addressed concerns about the system’s price. He admitted the Switch 2 comes at a higher price point than previous consoles, but emphasized that the company is focusing on offering an experience that justifies the cost. Furukawa explained that features and entertainment value have been prioritized, particularly for younger users who might otherwise be price-sensitive. Nintendo also plans to create more engagement opportunities outside of gaming systems to bring younger audiences into its ecosystem.
Despite all the buzz, many gamers remain hesitant. Limited launch titles, lack of a major Nintendo Direct, and questions around backwards compatibility have left some fans skeptical about buying early. For now, patience might be the best strategy until more games – and maybe an OLED revision – come around.