Supermicro (SMCI), a prominent player in the GPU-as-a-Service space and a major supplier of liquid-cooled AI server racks, is currently facing multiple challenges. These include doubts surrounding its internal control systems, fierce competition, and the slow erosion of its liquid-cooling technology’s competitive edge.
According to Bank of America analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya, Supermicro is under pressure, with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a target stock price of $35, implying a 28% downside from its current level of $48.69.
Bhattacharya outlines five key reasons behind his bearish stance on the company:
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The company’s margins are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, due to a large inventory of older-generation products, with a highly competitive market continuing to suppress profits over the long run.
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Revenue growth is constrained by the availability of critical components, including GPUs and liquid-cooling technology parts.
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Supermicro faces significant competition from companies like Dell and HP, which continue to leverage their established enterprise customer base in the AI server market.
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The company is grappling with potential risks from ongoing investigations and legal issues, as well as weaknesses in its internal controls.
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The company’s liquid-cooling technology, which once set Supermicro apart, is increasingly being commoditized, allowing rivals to close the technological gap.
As a result, Bhattacharya forecasts a decline in Supermicro’s gross margin, from 11.3% in FY 2025 to 9.4% by FY 2027. However, Supermicro has also taken strategic steps to bolster its future prospects. The company raised $2 billion through convertible senior notes, which should help support its financial stability.
In addition, Supermicro has secured a ‘multi-year partnership agreement’ with DataVolt, a prominent Saudi data center company. According to Goldman Sachs, this deal could generate $5 billion in annual revenue and $200 million in EBIT for Supermicro, assuming a 5-year contract and a 5% margin. Despite this partnership, Supermicro’s stock has seen modest movement, with a slight dip of over 1% in pre-market trading. However, the stock has gained 14% over the past month and 63% year-to-date, reflecting a positive long-term trend.