Tesla surprised the market this week by exceeding even the most pessimistic Q2 delivery projections. Despite missing Wall Street’s consensus by a mere 0.2%-less than 1,000 units-the company still delivered an impressive 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025.
Production reached 410,244 units, but the gap was narrower than expected, which highlights Tesla’s ability to push through even when challenges arise.
The breakdown reveals that the bulk of these deliveries came from the Model 3 and Model Y, with 373,728 units delivered, and 10,394 units from other models like the Cybertruck. In terms of inventory, Tesla’s days of supply metric increased slightly to 25.26 days from 23 in Q1, which is indicative of the company’s balanced approach to inventory management. They maintained a daily delivery rate of over 5,100 vehicles on average.
Despite some analysts lowering their expectations significantly for Tesla’s Q2 performance-JP Morgan, for instance, slashed its estimate from 392,000 to 360,000 units-the company managed to outperform these bearish forecasts. What made this performance even more remarkable was the surge in deliveries during the last month of the quarter. According to HSBC’s Michael Tyndall, Tesla’s June deliveries accounted for 47% of Q2’s total, which is higher than the typical range of 41-44%. The company’s aggressive push during this period resulted in a run rate of 170,000 to 180,000 units in June alone, setting a new benchmark for the company’s ability to accelerate deliveries under pressure.
Looking ahead to Q3, analysts are expecting a continued boost in deliveries, particularly due to the looming expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September, which could spur buyers to act before the credit disappears. However, despite this expected short-term demand spike, Tesla faces some headwinds, with H1 2025 deliveries down 13% year-over-year. To offset this decline, Tesla will likely focus on expanding its energy business in the second half of the year. On the operational front, recent changes in Tesla’s leadership, including the firing of its head of operations for North America and Europe, Omead Afshsar, and Elon Musk’s direct oversight of delivery operations, could also drive more aggressive sales efforts.
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